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Guest Post: Five Years After “An Inconvenient Truth”

2:56 pm in Other Topics, Policy, Perspectives by info@greentechmedia.com

Memorial Day weekend 2011 marked the fifth anniversary of the release of the Al Gore film An Inconvenient Truth, which by any measure represented a milestone in climate change communications. A retrospective analysis examines how the film and the former vice president have weathered the climate policy storms in the years since. This post originally appeared on the Yale Forum on Climate Change & the Media and is graciously republished with permission.

Five years after its May 28, 2006 theatrical release, An Inconvenient Truth (hereafter AIT) and its “star” still play leading roles in American and even international discussions of climate change.

Gore haunts Cool It, Ondi Timoner’s late 2010 documentary about Bjorn Lomborg, the cost-benefit skeptic of UN FCCC efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Gore delivered the major keynote address on the opening night of the most recent Power Shift, the gathering of college-age climate activists in Washington, D.C., in April. And in the very next week, in his Climate Shift report, American University communication professor Matthew Nisbet identified Gore as one of the causes of the political polarization now obstructing action on climate change.

Outside of the U.S., Der Spiegel in a January 2011 article speculated that Gore might be the “messiah” who could revive momentum on climate change. (That regrettable choice of words will be addressed shortly.) And, asked who might play the role of Churchill in the belated WW II-scale effort on climate change he predicts in his book The Great Disruption, Paul Gilding, the former head of Greenpeace International, named only Gore.

As for the AIT film itself, the title has become part of the global cultural lexicon. A Google search for “an inconvenient” and “op-ed” yielded almost 400,000 results, including “An Inconvenient Leak,” “An Inconvenient Peace Prize,” “An Inconvenient DVD,” and, of course, thousands of different and even opposing “Truths.”

But the inconvenient truth of this fifth-year anniversary is that we are back where we started — and possibly even behind where we were — in 2006. Levels of CO2 are higher, but, according to the most recent polls, levels of public concern may actually be lower. And American opinion is now also more polarized than before: more than two-thirds of Democrats believe “the effects of global warming have already begun to happen,” versus just one-third of Republicans.

If, as many suggest, Gore and An Inconvenient Truth were among the drivers behind the rise in concern registered from 2005 to 2008, do they also share some responsibility for the recent decline in that concern? And more importantly, what lessons can be drawn for the next concerted effort to communicate climate change?

To address these questions, we first consider forces already in play in media coverage of Gore in the 2000 presidential campaign, years before the release of AIT. We then examine how the director of AIT, Davis Guggenheim, shaped Gore’s image within the film. Finally, we survey popular responses to AIT, especially by conservatives, from 2005 to the present. (This includes two pieces published within the last month; “skeptics” are using the fifth-anniversary to re-bash Gore and the film.)

Gore’s Image in the 2000 Presidential Campaign

Popular and critical responses to AIT began forming long before Gore met Guggenheim. Two pre-AIT academic studies of Gore — one on his rhetoric and the other on media coverage of his rhetoric — identified three recurrent taglines in media coverage of the 2000 presidential campaign.

The first tag was “the serial exaggerator.” According to media historian and theorist Douglas Kellner, this line fed on itself; some reporters were primed for opportunities to confirm it. So much so, a Committee of Concerned Journalists report concluded afterwards, that in the closing weeks of the campaign, “George Bush was twice as likely as Gore to get coverage that was positive in tone.”

In a chapter in her 2002 book Partly Cloudy Patriot, “social observer” Sarah Vowell describes how a reflexive default to this line led a reporter from The New York Times and another reporter from The Washington Post to mishear and then misquote a remark by Gore during a November 1999 appearance at a Concord, N.H. high school. When students and teachers later objected, both papers issued corrections. But the damage had already been done; the tagline had been repeated — again. (An interesting aside: in the audio version of that 2002 book, Stephen Colbert, now host of The Colbert Report on Comedy Central, reads the words of Gore.)

The second tag was “hypocrite.” As recounted by philosopher Douglas Walton, after Gore’s keynote speech to the 1996 Democratic convention, Time commentators questioned his telling of his family’s response to his sister’s death from lung cancer. Gore, they noted, had solicited contributions from tobacco companies for several years after his sister’s death. When Gore explained that his judgment had been impaired by the loss, Time was not spun by the spin.

And the third was “Beta Al,” the tag applied to Gore after the press learned that his campaign had retained cultural critic Naomi Wolf as an image consultant. Her job was to help Gore look, sound, and act more like an “alpha male.” Although new to the 2000 presidential campaign, this tag was just another variation on a longstanding line on Gore: stiff, nerdy, officious, someone uncomfortable in his body and thus awkward in public.

After his eventual defeat in the 2000 election, Gore largely retreated from public view. On the few occasions he returned to the national stage to address issues arising from the war in Iraq, national newspapers covered his remarks.  Local and campus newspapers reported his again taking to the road to deliver his “slide show.” The three taglines were not incorporated in these stories, but in the spring of 2006 they remained part of the back story on Gore.

Guggenheim’s Portrayal of Gore in Truth

One measure of director Davis Guggenheim’s success in AIT is that his portrayal of Gore appears to have neutralized these taglines for many Americans. In the scenes of Gore lecturing, the former vice president comes across as informed but engaging. In the biographical segments — on Gore’s childhood, on his son’s accident, and on his sister’s death — he appears vulnerable, connected, and caring. These two counterpoints place the dogged and determined overachiever we see in the on-the-road scenes in a more appealing light. AIT presents a whole human being.

Readers interested in rehashing the arguments over the “scientific accuracy” of AIT can revisit Salon’s overview of dueling reviews initially posted in Tech Central Station, Real Climate, and other interested venues, but even the libertarian Reason admitted that “on balance, Gore gets it more right than wrong on the science.”

Of more interest are the somewhat surprising ways Guggenheim seems to have inadvertently  undermined the message of AIT by overselling its messenger. These are the result of Guggenheim’s own vision of Gore as a heroic figure, which he describes in the director’s commentary he recorded for the DVD: “Joseph Campbell, the famous author [on whose work] George Lucas based his Star Wars movies, talks about what a hero is[:] … a person who overcomes great obstacles and who achieves great things. If you think about Al Gore out there in the world, confronting great obstacles, trying to tell this story, … [t]o me that’s the path and the journey of a hero.”

But if the goal is to mobilize a population, to prompt concerted action on a pervasive social problem, does one really want a hero, particularly one of the lone and quixotic sort depicted in Campbell's work?

Throughout his lecture, but especially when he points out possible courses of action, Gore uses “we.” “We” all have roles to play in meeting the challenge of climate change. But when Guggenheim frames or follows these moments, he sometimes separates Gore from his viewers. Midway through the film, for example, Gore recalls Winston Churchill’s prophetic warning to the British people: “The era of procrastination … is coming to a close. We are entering a period of consequences.” Guggenheim promptly cuts to scenes of the 2000 election. “We” are no longer with Gore remembering Churchill’s warning. Gore has become Churchill, and “we” have failed to heed his warning. “We” have become climate appeasers.

In the process of constructing his heroic portrait of Gore, Guggenheim also severs a vital connection between Gore and many of AIT’s viewers: their shared religious faith. When he discusses the evolution of his own thinking, Gore often recounts the story of his son Albert’s near-fatal accident. In Earth in the Balance and in the book version of An Inconvenient Truth, this story includes prominent professions of faith: Gore and his wife Tipper “pray” — as so many parents no doubt would — that their son will recover from the car accident.

But in the film, “prayer” is never mentioned. The black-and-white scenes of Gore, son Albert, and wife Tipper in the hospital are succeeded by photos of Gore in congressional meeting rooms and then by color video footage of Gore on a helicopter, flying over a succession of iconic natural landscapes: the Arctic, Antarctica, and the Amazon. In the film, it is this connection with nature, rather than with his family and faith, that grounds Gore’s being. Later in the film, Guggenheim seems even to anoint Gore as nature’s messenger; Gore is haloed, in somber black and white, by the swirling clouds of Hurricane Katrina. The hero is transfigured.

Perhaps directors need heroes just as reporters need taglines. Thus one way to think about Guggenheim’s cinematic transformation of Gore’s message is as akin to the process media researchers Max and Jules Boykoff describe in their 2007 article on journalistic norms. In the case of Guggenheim’s direction in AIT, the norms were cinematic. Any message entering the medium of film will be refracted by the established norms for successful movies.

Gore in the Wake of Truth

An Inconvenient Truth was previewed at the Sundance Film Festival in January 2006. As part of the publicity campaign for the theatrical release of the film, on Memorial Day weekend in May of 2006, Gore was the cover story for the April 2006 issue of The American Prospect and for the May 2006 issues of Rolling Stone and Wired. Gore was also part of the celebrity ensemble on the cover of the first green issue of a fourth magazine, Vanity Fair.

Then came reviews, news stories, and op-ed pieces: more than 75 by the end of July, one-third of them in conservative venues such as the American Enterprise Institute’s website and in Human Events, National Review, Townhall, and The Wall Street Journal. Left and center responses often included lighthearted references to one or more of the three taglines about Gore (usually “the serial exaggerator”), but in conservative responses the tags were applied with full force.

As was true during the 2000 campaign, invocations of “the serial exaggerator” were often based on misquotations or misrepresentations. Nowhere in the film, for instance, does Gore say sea levels will rise 20 feet by 2100. Rather he claims that a failure to act within the next few decades could lock in a period of warming that could melt the ice sheets of Greenland or West Antarctica. Skeptics have dismissed this warning, first by misrepresenting it, and then by citing, without clarification, the incomplete or heavily qualified predictions made in the most recent IPCC report.

“The Hypocrite” tagline re-emerged in the second wave of responses to An Inconvenient Truth, the period from February to September 2007, during which time the film won an Academy Award for Best Documentary and Gore organized and hosted the Live Earth Concerts. These events prompted more than 75 conservative columns and op-ed pieces, including several that focused on the use of carbon offsets. Figures purported to be from Gore’s August 2006 electric bill were distributed through conservative networks on the Web. These figures were then cited in conservative op-ed pieces. Another round of e-mails and op-eds targeted Gore’s air travel and the energy and natural resources expended for the concerts he organized.

By the spring of 2007, “the hypocrite” and “the serial exaggerator” had merged into a new tagline: “global warming as religion.” In conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer’s March 16, 2007 column in Time magazine, the religion used to draw the analogy was the Roman Catholic Church of the Reformation. Krauthammer compared the carbon offsets Gore and his Hollywood compatriots both promote and purchase to the “indulgences” the papacy sold to finance the rebuilding of St. Peter’s Basilica in Rome.  Although at least two references to “environmentalism as religion” and “global warming as religion” predate An Inconvenient Truth, the comparison has been drawn much more frequently in its wake, with Gore named as its apostle, prophet, priest, high priest, pope — or messiah. Perhaps not surprisingly, then, in an unattributed image still circulating on the web, Guggenheim’s haloed hero has been redrawn as “Saint Gore.” (And the tag persists. In a very odd piece in the May 23rd edition of The Wall Street Journal, James Taranto paired Al Gore with Harold Camping in an effort to explain “the eternal appeal of doomsday cults.”)

“Beta Al” can be glimpsed in the caricatures that emerged in the third and fourth waves of responses to Gore and AIT, the periods of the Nobel Gore (April 2007 to November 2009) and The Fallen Gore (November 2009 to December 2010). After being named the co-winner, with IPCC, of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, and after publishing Assault on Reason and Our Choice, the companion volume, on solutions, for AIT, Gore became an even bigger target for conservative wrath and ridicule. As did, in the run-up to the climate policy conference in Copenhagen in December 2009, global warming generally. Controversies over hacked e-mails, the failures of the Copenhagen conference, the so-called snowmageddon, and a scandalizing accusation against Gore provided climate “skeptics” irresistible opportunities. Unflattering and often feminizing depictions of Gore’s body were easy ways for them to hit both targets. (An editorial cartoon online at Slate does this while poking fun at Gore on offsets.)

Working With Gore in the Anthropocene

In her profile of Gore in the May 2006 issue of Wired, Karen Breslau articulated “two inextricable” beliefs held by the former vice president: “[F]irst, that ‘the world is facing a planetary emergency, a climate crisis that is without precedent in all of human history.’ Second, that ‘the conversation of democracy is broken.’ Fix the latter, Gore argues, and the chances of remedying the former improve dramatically.”

One might argue that by failing at the second task, Gore and AIT ultimately failed to motivate the American public to address the first. But did Gore and AIT, as some have alleged, make the second problem worse? Is “the conversation of democracy” more broken as a result of AIT ?

In an October 9, 2010 column in the National Journal, long-time journalist Ron Brownstein, by no means a climate activist himself, noted that “it is difficult to identify another major political party in any democracy that is as thoroughly dismissive of climate science as the GOP is here.”

Did the GOP become this global anomaly because of Gore’s partisan zeal? That seems unlikely. Nevertheless, it’s probably not a good idea to taunt a cornered adversary unless one has a clear, and dispassionate, objective. And cornered the GOP and its climate skeptics are, as even their own language of “exceptionalism” implies.

But the breadth and depth of the interconnections inherent in “the Anthropocene” are difficult even for non-conservatives to grasp. When academic critics reduce AIT to “environmental nostalgia” or “tempered apocalypticism,” interpretations promoted by Guggenheim’s heroic (and quasi-religious) vision, a central part of Gore’s message is obscured: we are not punished by natural calamities for our moral choices; rather our choices about energy and other natural resources are increasingly important variables in the nonlinear natural systems that produce such calamities.

But even Gore appears not to see the full implications of his message and therefore goes easy on himself when he indulges, for instance, in carbon offsets. If a superstorm destroys the trees you paid to have planted or protected — along with many, many more — then your transcontinental flight  has not been offset.

Like a sonic pulse, the energy and emotions triggered by An Inconvenient Truth have revealed the terrain on which the politics of climate change will be played out in the U.S. For this result alone, the film should be considered a success. A useful way to start the next campaign might be to develop good taglines for the Anthropocene.

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A regular contributor to the Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media, Michael Svoboda is an Assistant Professor of Writing at The George Washington University. Previously the owner of an academic bookstore, he now tracks and analyzes efforts to communicate climate change, including the stream of research and policy published by NGOs. Email him at msvoboda@yaleclimatemediaforum.org.

Guest Post: Casting Oil Upon the Waters: The House Drilling Bills

2:02 pm in Other Topics, Policy, Perspectives by info@greentechmedia.com

This week, the House could vote on three bills to expand offshore oil and gas drilling. It is remarkable enough that the House would take up such measures before Congress has done a single thing to make drilling safer. But what is truly astounding about these bills is that they would actually make the system that governs offshore drilling weaker than it was before the disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. This is legislation that should give pause even to the most ardent proponents of offshore drilling. 

These bills are more than a Big Oil wish list; they are a sort of oil utopia — and they could make sense only in a utopian world in which oil spills could never ever happen, in which there are never conflicts between the oil industry and other economic interests like fishing and tourism, and in which oil companies always take environmental and safety concerns fully into account. It’s as if Rep. Doc Hastings (R-WA), the bills’ sponsor, set out to prove how apt it is to talk about the U.S. “addiction” to oil. Under these bills, the U.S. would truly be acting like an addict, willing to sell out any principle, dispense with any caution, endanger any asset to get its next fix. Again, these bills ought to be seen as irresponsible even by supporters of increased drilling.

So what would the bills actually do? Let’s start with the most egregious one of all, H.R. 1231. The bill is designed to ensure that oil drilling occurs off the East Coast from Maine to North Carolina, off the coast of Southern California and in the Arctic Ocean and Bristol Bay. That sweeping decision alone is breathtaking.  But the bill does this by mandating that at least half the unleased area in each of those regions be put up for lease sales each and every time the government puts outer continental shelf territory up for lease. (Offshore territory available for lease is identified in five-year plans; the next one will cover 2012-2017.) 

Now think about that.  The bill doesn’t simply reiterate that the government could make these areas available for oil drilling. It doesn’t just say that the government has to figure out which parts of those coastal waters would be appropriate for oil drilling and open those. It doesn’t even say that this administration has to open up a set amount of acreage for oil drilling, regardless of the specific concerns in any region. It says that, in perpetuity, each time waters are opened to drilling, at least half of the available acreage in each area needs to be opened up to drilling — until, presumably, every bit of acreage is being drilled.  

This is replacing oil policy with a kind of oil mania. Under this bill, neither this administration nor any future one could ever decide to limit drilling off the coast of New England, the Mid-Atlantic states, Southern California or Alaska because of economic or environmental concerns. No administration could decide to “take a breather” before opening up more leases to see how previously permitted activities were working out, or because there had been a spill, or because there was unexpected damage to the ecology or tourism, or because a state objected, or because there was no additional capacity to respond to an emergency, or because the agency overseeing drilling was too overwhelmed to properly review proposals.  At least half the remaining unleased territory would have to be put up for leasing each and every time no matter what had happened, no matter what could happen, no matter what concerns states or scientists or fishermen or federal officials might have. 

The bill goes beyond earlier proposals to open up drilling, many of which had at least limited provisions for states to opt out of drilling off the shores of their states and which were not as prescriptive.

The bill is titled “Reversing President Obama’s Offshore Moratorium Act,” demonstrating that partisan animus is behind this bill as much as any interest in energy. But the title is a misnomer in any event. The bill ought to be called, “A bill to prevent any president or other official or the public from ever deciding not to drill for oil everywhere, no matter what the facts on the ground are.” Not so pithy, perhaps, but it’s what the bill actually does.

The other two bills, while less sweeping — it would be just about impossible to be more sweeping — are based on the same compulsion to remove any judgment, discretion and balance from drilling decisions. 

H.R. 1230 mandates that the government conduct three lease sales in the next year — for oil and gas drilling in the central and western Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of Virginia.  These are areas the administration decided not to lease after the Deepwater Horizon disaster.  But as with H.R. 1231, the problem is not just opening up areas to oil and gas drilling. The bill short-circuits the environmental review for these sales.

Specifically, the bill blocks court review of the Environmental Impact Statements (EIS) prepared for the lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico. It does this by having Congress deem that the EISs have met the requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act. This deeming, of course, is simply a political judgment, based on nothing more than the wish that it be so.  (The Virginia lease is treated differently, apparently because the military may have concerns with it.  For the sponsors, court reviews are only legitimate when someone they like is bringing a lawsuit.) 

Shutting down the courts is particularly wrongheaded in this instance for two reasons.  First, the environmental review for these leases was done by the pre-Gulf disaster Minerals Management Service, an agency notorious for its close relationship to the oil industry. Second, these environmental reviews did not take into account the damage caused by the Deepwater Horizon blowout (and therefore what could happen under these leases), because such a disaster was thought of as impossible at the time.  

So under H.R. 1230, what is Congress’ reaction to the Gulf disaster?  It is mandating that the administration and the courts act as if it had never happened. This ought to be a dictionary definition of irresponsibility.

H.R. 1229 is another effort to make the review of oil and gas drilling weaker than it was before the Gulf disaster.  The bill sets an arbitrary time limit of 30 days for reviewing drilling permit applications and grants automatic approvals if no action has been taken within 60 days.  Was the message of the Gulf spill to ensure that safety reviews be shorter and conducted “under the gun”? In fact, the National Oil Spill Commission recommended that Congress extend another 30-day review limit — and that one didn’t even have an automatic approval provision.

H.R. 1229 also tries to make it harder to challenge any oil drilling decision related to the Gulf of Mexico by eliminating the ability of those who challenge the federal government successfully from having their legal fees reimbursed.  Current law does not encourage frivolous suits — the fees are only paid if the suit is successful — but it does enable citizen groups to challenge bad decisions.  And H.R. 1229 also has provisions to stack the decks against any plaintiff who still manages to sue.

So the first bills on drilling to come before the Republican-controlled House since the Gulf disaster try to wish away that catastrophic event.  They would: open almost all the waters of the U.S. to oil drilling; prevent any judgments from being made about where and when and how to drill; tie the hands of this and future administrations and the courts; and weaken the system of safety and environmental review.  Quite a legacy.

As my colleagues have noted, additional drilling will have no impact on gasoline prices.  This is not a solution to our problems; it is a way to create new ones. This is a bill written by people who are so hell-bent on drilling that they can’t even admit that there are consequences to be considered. This is not policymaking; it’s a new kind of magical thinking.       

David Goldston is the Director of Government Affairs for the Natural Resources Defense Council. In that role, he is responsible for NRDC's overall political strategy, bringing together NRDC's interactions with Congress, the Administration and, through the NRDC Action Fund, the public. He served as Chief of Staff of the House Committee on Science from 2001 through 2006, the culmination of more than 20 years on Capitol Hill working primarily on science policy and environmental policy.

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This post originally appeared on NRDC's Switchboard.

The photo comes from Crawfish under a Creative Commons license.

Jeffrey Sachs Takes on Murdoch

11:00 am in Other Topics, Policy, Perspectives by info@greentechmedia.com

Jeffrey Sachs isn’t solely placing blame for the unsustainable direction of the human population at the feet of Rupert Murdoch, but he’s certainly staring in the media mogul’s direction.

At the 17th annual International Sustainable Development Research Conference in New York City,  Jeffrey Sachs, Director of The Earth Institute at Columbia University and superstar economist, offered a grim outlook of where the world is now and where it might be headed. “I think it is right to say the window has closed,” he proclaimed. “We are now in a state of anthropogenically induced global crisis.” Fox News and the Wall Street Journal aren't helping the situation.

Sachs was not just referring to the acidification of the oceans or biodiversity loss, but also the almost-annual occurrence of “100-year” weather events, the pressures of real rising food prices and the continued reliance on fossil fuels. What has brought it all on so fast, he said, was the surge in world economic growth, primarily from powerhouses such as China. Although his keynote roamed beyond the need for a change in the energy economies of every nation, the powers working for and against new sources of renewable energy was a center point of his speech. 

In case worldwide crisis on every front was not a grim enough prospect, Sachs also contended that we’re in a time of failed institutions. “Our institutional capacity is woefully behind,” he said. He spoke of the silos of sustainability: economic, humanitarian and environmental, which can never be looked at in isolation, yet often are. He pointed to biofuels as one example. While he noted there was good work being done in biomass fuels that don’t compete with food, the reality is that in the near term, nearly all biofuels would be at odds with food crops or habitat. “Of course, the novelty of these challenges is working against us,” he said.

There will be technological breakthroughs — ARPA-E, the research arm of the Department of Energy has committed more than $41 million for non-biomass, non-petroleum fuel sources — but there are vested interests more powerful than the government at work, according to Sachs, who said that the politicians are all bought and paid for, anyway. He noted that each election cycle cost $4 billion, a figure that continues to grow with no end in sight. It’s not your corner grocer footing that bill.

“Were it not for Exxon Mobil, Rupert Murdoch, the Koch brothers and their cronies, we would have made a tremendous amount of progress on these issues,” he said. “It’s not that solutions aren’t available — it’s that they’re being undermined.”

When Greentech Media spoke to Sachs after his panel, we noted that despite the talking heads on Fox News blasting everything from carbon legislation to upgrading rail infrastructure, the parent company News Corporation's global operations have reportedly gone carbon neutral in less than three years. While Murdoch seeks to sway public opinion,  he is also investing in a low-carbon future and “growing sustainably.”

Sachs was unmoved by the argument that there are strong enough economic arguments for energy-efficient, low-carbon practices in businesses. In his view, Murdoch’s public campaigns outweigh what his company is doing internally. “Murdoch on the whole has been one of the most irresponsible people in the world on this issue,” he told Greentech Media. “I think his actions have been entirely detrimental and completely unscientific.”

His frustration was not reserved for Murdoch, either. The lack of action within Washington, and the power of lobbies, was also central to his argument. The Democrats are currently looking to cut about $4 billion in cuts to subsidies to big oil companies, but that should not be seen as a win, said Sachs. “I think they’ll get this done,” he said, “but it’s tiny. This would be a modest step, and useful, but we should keep our eye on the bigger things.”

He concedes there are pockets of movement, such as the 33 percent renewable portfolio standard in California. But a clean energy economy will continue to be a fractured picture without global agreement. “I don’t see a solution to 'decarbonize' the energy system in the absence of a full frontal effort from governments around the world,” said Sachs. The solution will take policy, science and ethics all working in coordination.

And can that ever happen, given the lack of commitment from China and the U.S. in the past? “It will come,” Sachs proclaimed. “The question is whether it will come so late that the dangers we are living with now will damage a large part of the world.”

Bjorn Lomborg: The Sustainability Critic

6:54 am in Other Topics, Policy, Perspectives by info@greentechmedia.com

While Bjorn Lomborg has never literally denied that the climate is changing, his economic theories have always served those who do. A Danish economist, Lomborg has won international notoriety. The Wall Street Journal loves his editorials.

But Lomborg’s arguments defy the dismal science’s universal principle that there was never anyone so useless as a one-handed economist (because the best economic analysis is all about “on the one hand” and “on the other hand.”)

“My own government’s exploits into the idea of electric cars,” the boyish, blue-eyed, blond-haired, black t-shirted Lomborg said in an interview last week, referencing Denmark’s support of Shai Agassi’s bold and iconoclastic Better Place project, “have been completely bungled by the way they’ve just simply said, ‘We’re gonna give a huge discount on cars,’ which is essentially the most expensive way of getting this going.”

The trouble with such subsidies for cutting-edge car buyers, Lomborg said, is “you get a few rich people to drive around and feel good about themselves and you have no impact. If you were to try to reach the numbers that we’re talking about, it would be an incredible giveaway.”

This is solid economic reasoning. On the other hand, Lomborg characteristically neglected to mention that some economists believe that disproportionately large government investment is necessary to overcome entry barriers in incipient markets and to create demand momentum.

To his credit, Lomborg’s thinking is still evolving.

In his 2001 magnum opus that made him the darling of the Wall Street Journal and climate change deniers, he essentially said the climate was changing but insisted nobody could be certain why or how fast. “We need to separate hyperbole from realities in order to choose our future optimally,” he wrote.

By 2007, Lomborg had concluded climate change was aggravated by fossil fuel emissions but thought there was no need to panic. “Statements about the strong, ominous and immediate consequences of global warming are often wildly exaggerated,” he wrote. Society’s limited resources could be far better used.

Now, he admitted in the interview, things have changed. “The world has moved in the sense that we’ve gotten better information about what’s smart,” he said, referring to advances in renewable energy technology. But, he said, “I do still worry about the fact that global warming gets all the headlines.”

Half of the world’s population, Lomborg said, “live in abject poverty, don’t have access to clean drinking water or sanitation and their kids are likely to die from easily curable infectious diseases. I don’t think their main concern is rising temperatures in a hundred years.”

True, but governments must focus on such long-term concerns, even as they assist their poor in dealing with immediate desperate needs, because such needs will only be more immediate and more desperate if governments do not do so.

Today, the consequences of an increasingly dynamic global climate are becoming more undeniable month by month and the renewables industries have proved themselves, despite disdain suffered from the shortsighted and inspired by the likes of Lomborg. But now, Lomborg's views have shifted again.

“The reason why I’ve been saying for a long time that we should not deal with it is because we basically only had bad solutions,” Lomborg said. Subsidizing renewables “was a very expensive way to do little good,” though research now shows “investing in research and development of green energy — that is actually a great investment,” because “you can avoid eleven dollars of climate damage for every dollar spent.”

In other words, when he could have inspired action, he used his statistical wizardry to support inaction. When he could have helped drive investment in research, he argued it was unwise. And now that spending to build is an option, he argues that keeping the renewables in the laboratory is the smartest approach.

Of his opposition to the Danish government’s attempt to grow an electric vehicle market, Lomborg says, “My sense is that there’s often a push to do it way too early — to feel good, to get great photo ops, but to not actually manage to do very much.”

Feel-good measures trouble Lomborg. “I think we have been way too blinded by the feel-good measures of wind and solar, forgetting that over the next decade or two the only real substantial cuts in carbon emissions are going to come from the switch from oil and coal to gas or to nuclear.”

Of Denmark’s extraordinary achievement of building enough wind energy infrastructure to provide twenty percent of its electricity, he said, “We need to make sure we don’t do stuff that just feels good.” His contention is that because it was done too soon, it was far more costly than it will someday be (though the poles may have melted by then).

“If you look at the cost curves, it seems very unlikely that wind will not be cost competitive within the next five to fifteen years,” he acknowledged, “I would have liked to have said it was sooner, but what we’ve seen in Europe is that wind has actually gone up in price dramatically, mainly because of bottlenecks.”

He neglected to mention that, on the other hand, as economies of scale driven by government support grow, industries eliminate bottlenecks and prices fall.

Any two-handed economist would easily see and confirm the likelihood of this.