PROJECT EASY GREEN

Despite the recent financial downturn for many solar companies, worldwide capacity will continue to expand.

SunPower today announced it will open a module manufacturing facility in Mexicali, Mexico in a 320,000-square foot building that already exists. The facility will produce regular solar modules as well as solar roof tiles.

It's not a great week for solar. Companies are being forced to sell more solar panels at lower prices to achieve the same revenue levels seen in earlier quarters. Profitless prosperity: it's like running to stay in place. Late last month, SunPower said that its gross margin would be lower and its net losses would be higher for the second quarter than anticipated because of declining prices in the market. (Earnings come out August 9.) Meanwhile, arch rival First Solar yesterday reported lower-than-expected financial results and lowered guidance for the year, the result of pricing pressure.

Nonetheless, shipments are expected to continue to increase in the coming years. Thus, to stay in the game, companies will have to invest in new capacity regardless of the pricing situation. When the ultimate shakeout occurs, the survivors will finally reap the benefit of a large, established global market: that formula worked in the IT space. Total, the oil and gas giant that bought a majority stake in SunPower earlier this year, will likely make it easier for SunPower to get access to comparatively inexpensive capital.

Elsewhere:

–The clean economy employs 2.7 million people, says the Brookings Institute. It is also export-intensive. "Seven of the 21 states with at least 50,000 clean economy jobs are in the South. Among all the states, California has the highest number of clean jobs, but Alaska and Oregon have the most per worker," the report states. You can get a lot more facts from the report here.

–ARC Energy, a New Hampshire-based company that makes equipment for producing the sapphire substrates required by LED manufacturers, says it signed contracts with two Asian manufacturers worth $96.9 million. LED manufacturers are in a similar situation to solar companies right now: record sales, declining prices, and pressure to expand capacity. Samsung has been investing heavily in manufacturing equipment. To keep up with orders, ARC will expand its own factory capacity by 30,000 square feet.

Semiconductor equipment vendors typically get acquired before they IPO, so it wouldn't be surprising in the next few years if Applied Materials, which is putting more emphasis on lighting, or a competitor buys ARC.

–Soltas Energy formally launched today. Founded by Andrew Barron Worden at Barron Partners, the company is buying majority stakes — typically around 60 percent — in prominent commercial solar installers in select states. It already has lined up partners in Tennessee, Connecticut and New Jersey, and the future might bring partners in Nevada, California, Arizona and/or New Mexico. (See earlier story from Intersolar.)

Once under the Soltas umbrella, these installers then begin to seek out commercial rooftop opportunities, erect them and then sell the power back to the building owner or some other party under a power purchase agreement. By 2016, the company wants to control a gigawatt.

Ideally, the company will be able to leverage established local relationships while taking advantage of discounts with panel makers and others signed by the central office. If you are a local installer, it might be worthwhile to check it out. Worden is also quite an engaging character. He and his brother (the founder of inverter maker Solectria) paid their way through Harvard and MIT with funds earned from their high school landscaping business.

–Finally, for you startups seeking funds, try Inerjys in Canada. The firm, new to us, functions almost like a combination of a VC firm and a power provider. It invests in green technology companies, and then incorporates the technologies into firm-funded facilities. Ideally, potential customers and, later, investors will have real-world results they can examine.

There is no Moore's Law for solar, batteries or wind.

Moore's Law — the observation that chips get cheaper and faster at the same time at a regular, rapid rate — is a result of the ability of engineers to shrink the size of semiconductors. I once asked Gordon Moore why it worked so well. In part, we got lucky with silicon, he said.

Green technologies, however, do benefit from what we like to call Moore's Lite. That is, the performance of solar panels and batteries gets better over time and prices drop, but not nearly as fast and not nearly as predictably. Look at solar modules. Prices slid in 2008 because of a one-time economic cataclysm and an overabundance of silicon, not because of the work of engineers.

The question has been what to call this cost/performance continuum in a way that's memorable but doesn't oversell the benefits. Moore's Lite sounds like a beer — a plus — but it drives copyeditors nuts. Lindsay Leveen, a longtime chemical engineer and author, has suggested 'Demi Moore's Law.' 'Demi' means half in French, and of course you get that image in your head of the gravelly-voiced actress who still seems to occasionally pack them in at the cineplex. Does it work for you? Let us know. (The image shows the curve Moore — Gordon, that is — drew to explain his thoughts. It's the graph paper that launched 1,000 business plans.)

Elsewhere:

–General Electric Hitachi has signed a memorandum of understanding with Energoprojekt Warszawa to study the feasibility of nuclear reactors in the country. Poland is already examining two GEH reactors.

If all goes as planned, construction could begin in 2016 and the reactors could begin to deliver power in 2020.

In nuclear, however, almost nothing goes as planned. The budget for a plant in Finland being built by Areva, the French company that arguably leads the nuclear industry, has ballooned from $3 billion to $5 billion. It is set to open next year.

Nuclear companies have found ways to reduce their costs. In China, contractors have figured out ways to pour the foundation quicker and thus save money, Jacques Besnainou, CEO of Areva's U.S. group, told us earlier this year.

Still, labor, which tends to go up in price, accounts for 60 percent of the cost of nuclear plants in some areas. Safety concerns following Fukushima will also likely add years and costs to projects. Neighbor Germany put nuclear on hold recently.

–Masayoshi Son, the brash leader of investment firm SoftBank and Japan’s wealthiest individual, wants to move into solar. The idea is to start with 10 large solar plants and go from there. It is one of the principal topics of conversation in energy circles right now, says Alain Harrus, who recently returned from Japan.

The proposal has a lot going for it. Japan has strongly supported solar since 1974 with the Project Sunshine proposal. Local manufacturers like Sharp and Panasonic/Sanyo face stiff competition from Chinese manufacturers in Germany, U.S. and Italy. The Japanese public remains incredibly angry at Tokyo Electric Power. Although real estate will be a challenge, open land actually exists there. It will mostly be a matter of untangling leases and ownership rights.

Son also has a somewhat strong track record for disrupting local monopolies. Son and Softbank played the leading role in opening the Japanese telco market to competition. Softbank is now one of the leading cell carriers. Think of him as a Japanese version of Richard Branson — but one that buttons his shirt.

–Finally, Efficient Drivetrains Inc., which makes components for hybrids and plug-ins, is engaged in a lawsuit with Toyota. EDI is the brainchild of UC Davis Professor Andy Frank, the man known as the Father (and Godfather) of the Plug-In. It operates with licensed technology from the University of California. (See video of Frank — a heck of a guy — here.)

Toyota popularized the hybrid, so this really is an unusual family squabble. Stay tuned.